Warm air flowing from North Africa is bringing severe heat to a wide area of Western Europe, particularly affecting France and Spain. In France, temperatures are expected to soar near 40°C—about 14°C above average—early next week, potentially triggering a massive heatwave.
Meteorological Background
A persistent high-pressure system aloft has created a "heat dome" that is trapping the warm air. This is causing a widespread area of high temperatures centered over France, and the heatwave is expected to extend across much of Western Europe, including Spain, Germany, Switzerland, and Italy.
First Heatwave of 2026 in France
According to Météo-France, climatologists declare a heatwave based on strict statistical criteria using the National Thermal Indicator (Indicateur Thermique National, or ITN), which was introduced in 1947. For a period to be officially classified as a heatwave, two conditions must be met simultaneously:
- The ITN must remain at or above 23.4°C for at least three consecutive days.
- The ITN must reach 25.3°C or higher on at least one day.
As of 5:00 PM local time on Wednesday, June 17, the ITN—which represents the national average temperature—reached 23.6°C, officially confirming a heatwave. This marks the first heatwave of 2026 and the 52nd recorded in France since 1947.
At the end of May this year, France experienced unprecedented heat for that time of year. On May 26, the ITN spiked to 24.83°C, setting an all-time high for May. However, it was classified merely as a high-temperature event rather than an official heatwave.
Temperature Forecasts for Paris Airports (June 18–22) and Historical Records
| Airport | ICAO/IATA | Forecast High June 18 (Thu) | Forecast High June 19 (Fri) | Forecast High June 20 (Sat) | Forecast High June 21 (Sun) | Forecast High June 22 (Mon) | Highest June Temp in Past 10 Years & Year Recorded (METAR) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Orly Airport | LFPO/ORY | 38°C | 36°C | 37°C | 38°C | 37°C | 37°C (2017, 2025) |
| Paris Charles de Gaulle International Airport | LFPG/CDG | 36°C | 37°C | 37°C | 37°C | 33°C | 35°C (2017, 2022, 2025) |
For detailed forecast information for airports worldwide, please visit our aviation decision-support tool, "SkyAviators." Learn more about SkyAviators here
- The definition of a heatwave (Canicule) is based on the publication by Météo-France: Canicule : une vague de chaleur s’installe cette semaine.
- Statistical data for the ITN is based on the Météo-France publication: Indicateur national français des températures.
- The timing and affected areas of the heatwave may change with future forecasts. Please continue to monitor the latest weather updates.
