A sharp rise in jet fuel prices, driven by tensions in the Middle East, is beginning to affect airline operating plans worldwide. Airlines have successively announced flight reductions and transitions to emergency management measures. As fuel costs surge, the financial risks associated with weather-related operational disruptions are becoming greater than ever.
Background — Middle East Tensions as the Trigger
Following the military conflict in the Middle East, the price of jet fuel (Jet A-1) has surged sharply. Over the past few weeks, fuel prices have risen rapidly, prompting several airlines to move ahead with fare increases and reductions in flight frequencies.
The Civil Aviation Authority of Vietnam (CAAV) has also issued a warning that supply constraints of Jet A-1, stemming from the Middle East situation, are increasing the risk of fuel shortages for domestic airlines.
Airlines’ Responses — Emergency Management and Large-Scale Flight Reductions
・Vietnamese Airlines According to a Reuters report (March 27, 2026), Vietnamese airlines are reviewing their operating scale in response to rising fuel prices. Flag carrier Vietnam Airlines is considering suspending or reducing some domestic routes, while LCC VietJet Air is also planning to scale back operations. Bamboo Airways is reportedly preparing to significantly reduce its daily flight numbers. Meanwhile, Sun PhuQuoc Airways is expected to maintain its current schedule for the time being. To help stabilize the domestic market, the government has reportedly introduced temporary measures to suspend part of the fuel tax, including taxes on aviation fuel.
・Korean Air According to a Reuters report (March 31, 2026), Korean Air will shift into an emergency management mode from April 2026 in response to rising crude oil prices. The airline plans company-wide measures centered on cost reductions and a review of fuel surcharges.
・United Airlines In a message to employees, CEO Scott Kirby said the airline plans to reduce capacity by about 5% in the short term. Fuel prices have more than doubled over the past three weeks, and if the current level persists, the airline estimates an additional annual fuel cost of approximately $11 billion. At the same time, the airline emphasized resilient demand, noting that booking revenue for the next 10 weeks remains at the highest level in the company’s history.
・Cathay Pacific In an official statement, the airline said it will increase fuel surcharges starting March 18, 2026, in response to higher aviation fuel prices linked to the Middle East situation. The surcharge will be reviewed monthly in line with fuel price trends.
Similar moves are being seen across the global aviation industry, with airlines adjusting capacity and implementing cost-reduction measures in response to higher fuel prices.
Implications for Operations Teams — Managing Weather Risk Under Tight Cost Constraints
When fuel costs surge, the implications of weather-related operational disruptions fundamentally change.
Under normal circumstances, an unexpected weather-driven diversion might simply be treated as an operational cost increase. However, with fuel prices now roughly twice their previous level, the same diversion can translate into a substantial cost escalation. A diversion to an alternate airport is no longer just an operational adjustment—it may require an emergency management decision. Likewise, when dealing with ground delays or cancellations, the trade-off between fuel conservation and passenger compensation becomes a strategic issue at the management level.
In this environment, shifting the response to weather risk from reactive to proactive is no longer merely a matter of operational efficiency—it becomes a critical element of cost control.
References: Reuters (March 27, 31, 2026) United Airlines (March 21, 2026) Cathay Pacific (March 12, 2026)
