From February 20 through 24, a transition to a more active weather pattern is expected across the United States.
Heavy rainfall is anticipated along the Pacific coast from February 22 onward. In the Northeast, the combination of an upper-level cold trough and a surface low-pressure system advancing northeastward along the East Coast with an associated frontal system is expected to bring heavy snowfall and strong winds from February 22 through 23. Widespread impacts on aviation operations are a concern, with the potential for significant operational restrictions and cascading delays at major airports.
Weather Overview for Selected Major Airports in the Northeast US
Snowfall is expected to begin at Washington and Philadelphia airports from the 22nd, and at Newark, New York, and Boston airports from the 23rd. Accumulated snowfall through 00Z on the 24th is generally expected to reach 10 cm or more across these areas. Philadelphia airport, which is particularly prone to active snow bands, could see record-breaking snowfall approaching 50 cm. Strong northerly winds are expected, especially at airports closer to the coast, and snowfall at Boston airport may continue beyond 00Z on the 24th. In addition to deteriorating road conditions due to snow accumulation and freezing, caution is also warranted for reduced visibility caused by intensifying snowfall and blowing snow. The risk of freezing rain or ice pellets associated with warm air intrusion aloft is considered low.
Airport Forecast
| Airport | Washington Dulles International Airport | Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport | Philadelphia International Airport | Newark Liberty International Airport | LaGuardia Airport | John F. Kennedy International Airport | Boston Logan International Airport |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| City | Washington, DC | Washington, DC | Philadelphia | Newark | New York | New York | Boston |
| ICAO/IATA | KIAD / IAD | KDCA / DCA | KPHL / PHL | KEWR / EWR | KLGA / LGA | KJFK / JFK | KBOS / BOS |
| Snow Timing (by 0000 UTC 24 Feb) | from 0300 UTC 22 Feb to 2100 UTC 23 Feb | from 0300 UTC 22 Feb to 2100 UTC 23 Feb | from 0900 UTC 22 Feb to 0000 UTC 24 Feb | from 0000 UTC 23 Feb to 2100 UTC 23 Feb | from 0000 UTC 23 Feb to 0000 UTC 24 Feb | from 0000 UTC 23 Feb to 0000 UTC 24 Feb | from 0300 UTC 23 Feb to 0000 UTC 24 Feb |
| Peak Snowfall Period | from 2100 UTC 22 Feb to 0600 UTC 23 Feb | from 2100 UTC 22 Feb to 0900 UTC 23 Feb | from 0000 UTC 23 Feb to 1800 UTC 23 Feb | from 0300 UTC 23 Feb to 1500 UTC 23 Feb | from 0600 UTC 23 Feb to 1800 UTC 23 Feb | from 0600 UTC 23 Feb to 1800 UTC 23 Feb | from 1500 UTC 23 Feb to 0000 UTC 24 Feb |
| Low VIS / CIG due to Snow Period | from 2100 UTC 22 Feb to 0600 UTC 23 Feb | from 2100 UTC 22 Feb to 0900 UTC 23 Feb | from 0000 UTC 23 Feb to 1800 UTC 23 Feb | from 0300 UTC 23 Feb to 1500 UTC 23 Feb | from 0600 UTC 23 Feb to 1800 UTC 23 Feb | from 0600 UTC 23 Feb to 1800 UTC 23 Feb | from 1500 UTC 23 Feb to 0000 UTC 24 Feb |
| Forecast Snowfall Amount (by 0000 UTC 24 Feb) | 15-20cm | 20-30cm | 40-50cm | 15-20cm | 15-20cm | 10-15cm | 20-30cm |
| Strong Winds ≥ 20 kt | NIL | NIL | from 0600 UTC 23 Feb to 1500 UTC 23 Feb | NIL | from 0300 UTC 23 Feb to 2100 UTC 23 Feb | from 0300 UTC 23 Feb to 2100 UTC 23 Feb | from 0600 UTC 23 Feb to 0000 UTC 24 Feb |
| Minimum Temperature During Snowfall | -1℃ (from 0400 UTC 23 Feb to 1400 UTC 23 Feb) | -1℃ (from 0500 UTC 23 Feb to 1400 UTC 23 Feb) | -1℃ (from 0500 UTC 23 Feb to 1700 UTC 23 Feb) | -2℃ (from 1400 UTC 23 Feb to 1700 UTC 23 Feb) | -1℃ (from 1300 UTC 23 Feb to 2100 UTC 23 Feb) | -1℃ (from 1300 UTC 23 Feb to 2100 UTC 23 Feb) | -3℃ (from 1900 UTC 23 Feb to 0000 UTC 24 Feb) |
Airline Operational Challenges — Why Do “Unexpected Cancellations” Happen?
Large-scale flight cancellations during winter are often not the result of unforeseen weather. Instead, they often come down to a critical challenge: how to assess forecast reliability within limited decision-making time.
・Even after reviewing the TAF, confidence in the forecast may remain uncertain. ・Numerical weather prediction models can provide additional support, but it is often unclear which model should be prioritized. ・There is little time to check historical performance or consistency across multiple models.
For aviation operations teams, the ability to instantly compare, evaluate, and interpret multiple sources of information has become more essential than ever. What airlines truly need is a simple, intuitive indicator that allows them to quickly and confidently answer one key question: How reliable is the forecast for this airport?
